Weekly Review of the Lithium Carbonate Market: High Market Sentiment and Lithium Prices Fluctuating Upward [SMM Weekly Review]

This week, lithium carbonate prices showed an upward trend with continuous fluctuations, and the overall price center moved up significantly. Price-wise, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 80,750 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 84,350 yuan/mt; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased from 78,550 yuan/mt to 82,000 yuan/mt, with cumulative gains of 3,600 yuan/mt and 3,450 yuan/mt, respectively. The trading range for the most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract shifted upward to between 86,200 yuan/mt and 89,900 yuan/mt, with price fluctuations mainly driven by improved demand expectations and bullish market sentiment.

In terms of supply, lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates, with capacity fully utilized. Both spodumene-based and salt lake-based production lines operated at high rates, serving as the main supply sources. Domestic lithium carbonate production in November is expected to remain at October's level, roughly flat MoM. On the demand side, the EV market saw rapid growth in both commercial and passenger new energy vehicles; the ESS market experienced strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight.

In market trading, sentiment remained high this week. Upstream continued destocking, with increasing reluctance to sell and a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Despite the price increase, downstream material plants adopted a cautious purchasing approach, only buying to meet rigid demand. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long-term agreements for next year, with discussions mainly focused on coefficients at this stage.

Looking ahead, battery cell and cathode material production schedules for November continue to improve, and lithium carbonate is expected to see significant destocking in November. Supported by both supply-demand fundamentals and market sentiment, lithium prices may maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term.